Writers' Strike 2023 Thread

[Mandoli]

Okay, so it's being leaked into other threads. I think we should keep all ideas/thoughts and whatnot to this thread.

[CardSharksFan8689]

I learned that the actors are now on strike (first time since 1980), which may be designed to put even more pressure on the employer to get the strikers what they want.

Production companies are likely severely impacted now (or are now starting to), having supposedly lost billions of dollars in revenue so far, and the actors are likely joining the writers so that it could cause deeper revenue losses which means it could speed up a deal.

Based on history, unless there are replacement workers, strikes tend to cause the company to suffer financially by the three-month mark, and the company (reluctantly) gives in to many of their demands in order to prevent bankruptcy.

I did learn on an article something about production companies making the writers stay out until closer to Halloween, which is when it is believed the strikers may go broke.  But I did not see any such thing on any credible news sources (i.e. CBS, MSNBC, ABC, The New York Times, The L.A. Times,  etc.), and unless a credible source says it, I don't buy it.

According to a BBC article (a credible source) I read yesterday, it said that negotiations are happening, but are kept behind closed doors possibly with a media blackout.  That could be why there is no word on any progress to date, and there may be progress made - if quietly.

I remember a municipal strike happening in my hometown's neighboring city last summer, and it did last three months.  Talks were held behind closed doors, with a media blackout.  A final offer was made in late August, but it didn't get approved for a vote.  That strike started early in July last year and ended in late September.

From what I believe, it sounds like the negotiators want the best deal for the writers, but the problem is, the union doesn't want to be replaced by artificial intelligence.  Truth is, many businesses are slowly phasing in artificial intelligence - it's a new development.  I wouldn't be shocked if some job titles where I work will be gone in a few years in favor of artificial intelligence.

Also, I learned that demand for streaming services had peaked, and except for free streaming services such as Pluto, streaming services are now in decline, based on what I read.  This means the workers are wanting to be paid about the same amount of money for streaming as they did with DVDs (from what I learned from a co-worker of mine, or was that a claim?), but the way things are going with streaming, there may end up being fewer streaming services (many may merge like HBO Max did, and some may disappear) when the strike ends.

One way the strike can be settled is for impacted and non-impacted shows to add a few minutes of extra commercial time to TV broadcasts, and introduce commercials to shows and movies on Netflix and other streaming services (I learned that Netflix never had commercials to this day, and it may be needed soon).

I remember, when the previous writers' strike ended in February 2008, I believe that many shows - including non-scripted shows - added extra commercial time just over a year later.  I even remember in May 2009 that TPIR had expanded commercial time and merged the first two segments into one longer segment.  The running time for TPIR (minus commercials) currently stands at about 38 minutes, down from the Bob Barker era norms of over 40 minutes.  Maybe that's why Pluto's Drew-era TPIR channel never offered the first two seasons - the total commercial times were inconsistent.

Isn't there a law that forbids job cuts during and after a strike or lockout?  And did the production companies lose a large amount of profits in recent years?

[CardSharksFan8689]

I learned that there is likely going to be some primetime TPIR and LMAD coming this fall just for the purpose of filling the slots, though I did read they'll be aired on Friday nights - which is said to be a night in which primetime TV ratings are lower. Doesn't surprise me one bit.  Either way, it sounds like Fremantle is going to have a very busy few months ahead.

Hopefully the episodes are new episodes and not reruns.

As for the strike, I did learn that two big production companies impacted during the strike are considering selling assets.  Disney is considering selling its linear TV assets (including the ABC network), and may consider selling the entire Disney company (reported recently); while Warner Bros. Discovery is considering selling half of its assets as reported in June.  Of course, the highest bidder wins.

I also learned that the big production studios have been deep in debt even before the strikes, and it seems as if the only thing that may end the strikes is an acquisition or merger of some kind.

After all, All-American Television - the company that once owned the Mark Goodson properties - got bought out by Pearson Television, and a few years later it got bought out, in turn, by Fremantle.  According to Wikipedia, Fremantle does not deal with scripted shows (correct me if I'm wrong, though they do own the rights to "Baywatch" which was cancelled before the Fremantle takeover).

Hanna-Barbera Studios, in its final years of operation, didn't have much financial success, and it ended up getting bought out by Warner Bros. (TimeWarner or whatever they were called back then).  It's possible that Warner Bros. may have to find a new home for the Hanna-Barbera properties, if need be.  But one thing's likely possible - it most likely won't be a production company based in California.

Either way, Hollywood is desperate to end the strikes soon, before the entertainment industry starts to collapse.

[aaaa]

A couple of Celeb primetime WOF tapings have been preempted due to the strike. Jay Leno isn't doing You Bet Your Life due to the strike. Person Place or Thing is premiering this Fall in syndication with Melissa Peterman hosting, after being test run in a few markets last Summer the day 25 Words or Less and Pictionary were before they became regular series. Person Place or Thing may or may not be a replacement for YBYL, which was renewed for a third season before the strike happened. The big story at this point is Jeopardy, as a number of TofC players won't be in the TofC if the show has to use recycled clues because of the strike. Jeopardy, which is set to start taping on 8/15, could well be delayed because of it. There were scheduled to be Wild Card and Second Chance tournaments to kick off the season, featuring players who won three or less games in 39, in the weeks leading up to the TofC. At this point, if the season were to start on the time and the strike is still on, it will be regular games, presumably hosted by Ken as Mayim is siding with the WGA, probably with games recycled from previous seasons. Using clues from previous seasons could force a temporary or permanent shutdown to J-archive, it has been surmised by people on Jboard.

[rewindium]

Temporary closure to the archive would be applicable in this situation or suspending recaps for season 40 if taping goes ahead until the strike is resolved. Especially with the tournament players, a perfect 61 correct response game or two would be likely to happen using old material for clues

[aaaa]

Jul 25, 2023 21:23:30 GMT -5 rewindium said:

Temporary closure to the archive would be applicable in this situation or suspending recaps for season 40 if taping goes ahead until the strike is resolved. Especially with the tournament players, a perfect 61 correct response game or two would be likely to happen using old material for clues

The J-archive going down would be a slap in the face to the people who archive the games daily, starting in 2004, usually the daily games are archived between 2:30-3PM EST. Many other games from earlier years have been posted there as well. Additionally, this year there were the celebrity games in primetime and the recent Masters tourney to archive. Also in the past year, hundreds of the games from the 80s and 90s were located, a few hundred of them due to an anonymous donor in care of the upcoming museum of Game Show History. The archivists have done at least one game a day from that newly found archives, and in some cases several. It's probably the most labor intensive game show website on the internet by a wide margin. 

[rewindium]

On a side note, I believe British Columbia satellite viewers with Newfoundland's NTV may be the very first to see that day's Jeopardy at 3:30 pacific time, following ET. I watch it daily at 4:30 in the mountain time zone

[johnnyo]

Jul 25, 2023 18:37:02 GMT -5 aaaa said:

Using clues from previous seasons could force a temporary or permanent shutdown to J-archive, it has been surmised by people on Jboard.

This speculation seems ludicrous to me. Isn't the purpose of the archive to create a record of the games? Why would it matter at all if previous clues were used? I would expect the archive to continue capturing all of the new episodes while noting the circumstances.

[CardSharksFan8689]

It looks like there's some movement on the WGA strike at this moment. Production companies are wanting to schedule talks in order to get Hollywood back on track, and possibly save the fall TV season - and hopefully the actors will follow suit.

This is about three months after the strike started, and I had always suspected, based on history with strikes of any kind, that a company suffers a financial impact by the three-month mark and is desperate for revenue by that point. That impact might be here now, which is perhaps why talks are likely in the works at this time. It's likely crunch time now.

[CardSharksFan8689]

According to recent reports, negotiations didn't go ahead. This implies that the AMPTP likely stands firm to switch to AI writers and maybe AI actors.

I can see what's likely happening: In the future, most films will likely be 3D animation or cartoons (which are likely cheaper to produce), and far fewer live-action films.

It is stated on some sources that the WGA and SAG-AFTRA have reserves for six months. This means the WGA likely has three months of reserve funds left (which puts a possible settlement date at around Halloween), though NBC News has recently reported that striking workers in both unions are now starting to suffer financially. They may end up unable to pay their debts in due time, prompting the writers, and eventually the actors, to settle. Though I wonder, if the strikes get settled, could there be mass layoffs when the strikes are over?

I can see the writers' strike continuing until around Halloween, which is probably when the WGA's reserve funds could be depleted, and the actors' strike ending no later than mid-January. If this is true, don't expect to see any scripted shows on primetime until March or April (and even then, they might consider them holdovers until September 2024 due to the small episode count, unless the show gets cancelled in 2024).

I certainly hope Abbott Elementary doesn't get cancelled if they lose a full season of production, but I have a feeling it will likely be if AI actors ultimately replace human actors.  If I ran ABC, I would not issue a cancellation notice after losing a full season of production, and I would extend the Season 3 contract to 2025.  Because it's the right thing to do.  it would be wrong to cancel a show after losing production of a full season due to a strike.

Another possible idea is moving the scripted shows to streaming only for first-run episodes, then the seasons of those shows would make their broadcast debut the following September.  After all, Sesame Street does debut the new episodes on Max first, and the following September that season starts airing on PBS as reruns.

I highly doubt wages are the #1 issue in the WGA strike.  The AMPTP had no problem giving sufficient streaming residuals to directors not long after the WGA strike started, so it implies that AI is the issue in the disputes, as directors cannot be replaced by AI.

[CardSharksFan8689]

With the most recent round of talks being unsuccessful, I know of one surefire way the strike could be resolved and the workers can get what they want:

• Cut the total running time of movies by almost 30 minutes, and throw in a slower credit crawl.
• Cut the total running time of TV shows to about 15 minutes for half-hour shows and about 30-32 minutes for hour-long shows (this would also include a longer credit sequence and an extended opening with clips from past seasons - these openings can be recycled. This shorter running time would allow for extra commercials.
• Extend the openings of TV shows to two minutes and have a longer credit sequence.

I still feel as if AI is the issue at hand in the strike, and after learning that Disney's stock prices hit its lowest levels in nearly a decade (nobody's going to invest in Disney at this point), if their stock prices fall low enough Disney, and other production studios, will eventually have to cease operations and sell the companies to an international company.

The trouble is, Hollywood is in financial trouble. Even with the financial impact from the strikes (WGA out for four months this weekend), the studios are still not giving in to union demands because they don't have the money to pay them what they want.  The only way to end the strikes is to cut the running time for movies and TV shows.

I did learn that one movie by Marvel Cinematic Universe has a running time of about 90 minutes, as opposed to 2 hours for previous films.  Hopefully the production companies can take it as a hint.

[CardSharksFan8689]

Not directly related to the strikes, but I did learn that some cable providers in the U.S. lost the rights to CBS, NBC, and/or ABC and Disney-owned networks, because the company that owns those networks is demanding a significant amount of money to keep them on the air. Giving up on the networks permanently would likely be a last resort - and likely a very difficult decision. This is Disney's way of desperately trying to recover its losses, and I bet other production studios are following suit.

Back to the thread's original topic, since mid-August, Disney cancelled some streaming series despite doing well in the ratings. Most recently, How I Met Your Father got cancelled, despite the last season finale's cliffhanger. Some shows are cancelled even after a full season was produced. I can be certain that there will likely be a lot more shows cancelled in the weeks to come.

When the strikes are over, the vast majority of sitcoms and drama shows will likely be gone forever, and it will mean fewer writers for whatever shows and films survive. It will be interesting to find out if many scripted shows renewed by a network will survive or get cancelled.

I can see the possibility of Disney, and maybe other production companies, filing for bankruptcy protection due to having lost billions of dollars in new revenue. By that point, the strikers will find out about it, and will likely scare the workers into getting a deal reached in order to save the company - but if that happens, mass restructuring will likely have to happen.

I can sense that, by Fall 2024, there will likely be no more scripted shows on broadcast television, and ABC's Summer Fun & Games schedule will likely become year-round.

[vahan]

WGA Strike is over, but the SAG/AFTRA strike is still on. Six more days, and it would have broken the record of the 1988 Strike.

Kinda off-topic, but since Paul Reubens just passed away, it's worth mentioning that when the writers went on strike in 1988, this made him unable to do a full third season of Pee-wee's Playhouse that year. After that strike ended in August, he was only able to do a Christmas Special and two episodes. I found out in a newspaper research that the first episode aired early in 1989, and the other one aired along with the 10 new shows of the 1989-1990 Season.

[CardSharksFan8689]

According to a Facebook post, there are rumors that the actors may possibly end their strike soon, and production studios are already preparing for production. It's a good sign, but take it with a grain of salt.

Considering that only two regular episodes of Pee-Wee's Playhouse were produced after the 1988 strike ended in August that year, it makes me wonder if some primetime comedy shows such as Abbott Elementary may only be able to produce two episodes, or even just four, and if they'll end up being reserved for the 2024-2025 season - assuming they don't get cancelled in 2024?

When Pee-Wee's Playhouse produced full seasons again in 1989, they produced both the 1989 and 1990 seasons - 20 episodes in total - back-to-back in a different studio, all in 1989, possibly in a shorter time frame.  Makes me wonder if those scripted shows, should they get renewed in 2024, could end up moving production to a new production studio next year?

At least now the writers will soon be able to write scripts for upcoming production.  I suspect the new seasons for scripted shows will likely launch as early as February at this point.

[CardSharksFan8689]

For those of you who are eagerly awaiting the new seasons of scripted fare, you may have to wait a while longer, as the recent talks between the studios and the SAG-AFTRA broke off yesterday.

Looking back at the weeks leading up to the WGA deal, I remember reading on Facebook that several scripted shows designed for streaming services only were cancelled, and ABC announced the cancellation of Home Economics just after the writers voted in favor of their deal.  I am thinking that, with those cancellations, actors and writers who work on those shows were laid off, and the savings realized from the layoffs was given to whatever writers are left.

Having said that, I have a feeling that the streaming services and networks are going to have to evaluate their scripted programming in the coming weeks and determine if there are more low priority shows to cancel, in order to give the actors on the surviving shows most of what they are fighting for.  The studios desperately need revenue more than ever.